Odds
Mega Millions vs Powerball: the odds compared, tier by tier
Both jackpots are advertised in the hundreds of millions and both are almost impossibly unlikely — but the two games are not equally hard, and the smaller tiers differ a lot.
Mega Millions and Powerball are the only two lotteries sold in nearly every US jurisdiction, and their jackpots are quoted in the same breath. Their odds are close enough that the difference barely matters emotionally — and far enough apart to be worth understanding before you decide which ticket to buy.
Where the jackpot odds come from
Both games work the same way: five white balls are drawn from one pool, and a single coloured ball is drawn from a second, separate pool. Because the order of the five white balls is irrelevant, the number of distinct white-ball sets is a combination, written C(n, 5), and the total number of possible tickets is that figure multiplied by the size of the bonus pool.
| Game | Matrix | White-ball sets | Bonus pool | Possible tickets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Millions | 5 of 70 + 1 of 24 | 12,103,014 | 24 (Mega Ball) | 290,472,336 |
| Powerball | 5 of 69 + 1 of 26 | 11,238,513 | 26 (Powerball) | 292,201,338 |
So Powerball's jackpot is 0.6% harder to hit than Mega Millions' — 1 in 292,201,338 against 1 in 290,472,336. That gap is real but tiny in human terms: both are somewhere between "struck by lightning twice" and "never". The more interesting differences are below the jackpot.
Mega Millions: every prize tier
Since October 31, 2017 the white balls have run 1–70, and since April 8, 2025 the Mega Ball pool has been 1–24. A play costs $5 and carries a built-in random multiplier of 2X, 3X, 4X, 5X or 10X that applies to every non-jackpot prize, which is why the smallest possible win is $10 rather than the base $5.
| Match | Base prize | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 5 white + MB | Jackpot | 1 in 290,472,336 |
| 5 white | $1,000,000 | 1 in 12,629,232 |
| 4 white + MB | $10,000 | 1 in 893,761 |
| 4 white | $500 | 1 in 38,859 |
| 3 white + MB | $200 | 1 in 13,965 |
| 3 white | $10 | 1 in 607.17 |
| 2 white + MB | $10 | 1 in 665 |
| 1 white + MB | $7 | 1 in 85.81 |
| 0 white + MB | $5 | 1 in 35.17 |
Powerball: every prize tier
Powerball has used 1–69 white balls and a 1–26 red Powerball since October 7, 2015. A play costs $2; the 2X–10X Power Play multiplier is a separate $1 add-on rather than being included.
| Match | Base prize | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 5 white + PB | Jackpot | 1 in 292,201,338 |
| 5 white | $1,000,000 | 1 in 11,688,054 |
| 4 white + PB | $50,000 | 1 in 913,129 |
| 4 white | $100 | 1 in 36,525 |
| 3 white + PB | $100 | 1 in 14,494 |
| 3 white | $7 | 1 in 579.76 |
| 2 white + PB | $7 | 1 in 701.33 |
| 1 white + PB | $4 | 1 in 91.98 |
| 0 white + PB | $4 | 1 in 38.32 |
What each ticket actually returns
Add up every fixed tier — prize multiplied by probability — and you get the part of a ticket's value that does not depend on the jackpot. It is the only part you can calculate without knowing tonight's advertised prize.
| Mega Millions | Powerball | |
|---|---|---|
| Ticket price | $5 | $2 |
| Fixed-prize expected value | $0.37 | $0.32 |
| As a share of the price | 7.5% | 16.0% |
| Odds of any prize | 1 in 23.07 | 1 in 24.87 |
| Drawings per week | 2 | 3 |
Powerball returns more of its ticket price through fixed prizes (16.0% versus 7.5%), but the comparison is not apples to apples: Mega Millions multiplies every one of those prizes by at least 2X automatically, while matching Powerball's multiplier costs an extra dollar. Include the Mega Millions multiplier at its typical value and the two games' fixed returns land in the same neighbourhood — roughly a fifth of the ticket price, with the rest riding on a jackpot you will almost certainly not win.
So which game is "better"?
There is no answer that survives contact with the arithmetic, but there are trade-offs:
- Cheapest shot at a jackpot: Powerball, at $2 per play against $5. Per dollar spent, Powerball buys more jackpot probability.
- Best jackpot odds per play: Mega Millions, by 0.6%.
- Most chances per week: Powerball, with 3 drawings (mondays, wednesdays & saturdays) against 2.
- Biggest small prizes: Mega Millions, because the multiplier is included. Its 4 white + MB tier pays a base $10,000 and never less than double that.
Check the numbers yourself
Every figure on this page comes from two inputs: the published ball matrices and the published base prizes. The odds for a tier are
P(match m white, bonus hit or missed) = [ C(5, m) × C(N−5, 5−m) / C(N, 5) ] × [ 1/B or (B−1)/B ]
where N is the white-ball pool and B the bonus pool. Our step-by-step guide to calculating lottery odds works through the formula from scratch, and the totals above match the official prize charts published by both games to the penny.