Guides
Lottery statistics, explained properly
Nine guides covering the probability, the prize structures, the tax arithmetic and the rule changes behind Mega Millions and Powerball. Every figure is computed from the published ball matrices and from 2,312 recorded drawings — if a number appears in one of these guides, you can reproduce it.
Mega Millions vs Powerball: the odds compared, tier by tier
Both jackpots are advertised in the hundreds of millions and both are almost impossibly unlikely — but the two games are not equally hard, and the smaller tiers differ a lot.
Read the guide ProbabilityThe law of independent trials: why past numbers can't predict the next drawing
A ball that has not appeared in 40 drawings is not "due". Here is what independence actually means, and what the full drawing record says when you test it properly.
Read the guide DataAre hot and cold numbers real? Testing the full drawing record
Every lottery site publishes a hot-numbers table. We ran the two tests that decide whether those tables contain any information at all.
Read the guide DataWhat real winning combinations look like: sums, splits and consecutive numbers
Winning tickets are not evenly spread across the play slip. The pattern is entirely a consequence of counting — and it matters for one reason only, which is not the one usually claimed.
Read the guide AnalysisWhen is a lottery ticket "worth" it? The expected-value math
There is a jackpot size at which a ticket's expected value passes its price. It is much higher than most people assume, and reaching it still does not make the bet a good one.
Read the guide MoneyRecord jackpots and the tax math winners actually face
The advertised jackpot, the cash value and the amount that reaches a bank account are three very different numbers. Here is the gap, with the record board that produced them.
Read the guide HistoryHow the 2015 Powerball rule change reshaped the odds
Ten white balls added, nine red balls removed. The jackpot became two-thirds harder to win, small prizes became easier, and the first billion-dollar jackpot followed within months.
Read the guide HistoryWhat the 2025 Mega Millions overhaul actually changed
The ticket went from $2 to $5, the Mega Ball pool shrank by one, Megaplier disappeared, and every non-jackpot prize now carries a built-in 2X–10X multiplier. Here is the arithmetic.
Read the guide Math primerHow to calculate lottery odds yourself
Two formulas cover every jackpot game ever sold. Once you can reproduce the official prize chart, no lottery claim can surprise you again.
Read the guideStart here if you are new
Read how lottery odds are calculated first — it is the foundation for everything else, and it takes ten minutes. Then compare the two games tier by tier. If you have ever wondered whether hot numbers work, the answer is in the test of the full drawing record, and the reason is in the law of independent trials.
When you are ready to look at the data yourself, both generators publish the underlying statistics next to the numbers they produce: Mega Millions and Powerball.